Tag: bailouts

This article examines how political extremes have become the “new normal” in Newfoundland and Labrador, tracing their roots to fiscal bailout politics, the cod fishery collapse, and decades of boom–bust resource cycles. Economist Xinli Guo shows how soft budget constraints normalize fiscal brinkmanship, while Jessica Hogan’s comprehensive research links memories of the cod collapse, hydro megaproject overruns, mining bankruptcies, and offshore oil volatility to a cultural mindset of “sceptical optimism.” Combined with entrenched patronage politics and weak local institutions, these forces recast consensus as compliance and dissent as disloyalty, leaving communities trapped in cycles of hope and betrayal. The article argues that extremes are not random outbursts but systemic outcomes of Newfoundland’s political economy, and that naming this “unhinged” playbook is the first step toward restoring trust in moderation. Read More...

This article argues that Newfoundland is trapped in a cycle of repetition: crises are framed as opportunities for “resets,” but the language, promises, and outcomes are the same every time. From resettlement and Churchill Falls to Muskrat Falls and the “Big Reset,” the province rehearses the same narratives of crisis and rescue rather than building new strategies. Municipal bailouts reinforce this cycle by rewarding dependence, while centralized politics and performative culture keep institutions weak. The result is stagnation — Newfoundland isn’t moving forward but re-performing the past. The piece closes by linking this cycle to political candidates themselves, setting the stage for the upcoming Kingmaker article. Read More...

Newfoundland keeps cycling back to “the next big project” because of path dependency (how ideas, institutions, goals, and infrastructure lock in repetition) and soft budget constraints (bailouts that reward risk). Muskrat Falls shows the pattern: a 2005 cable promised 2015 power, but delivery came nearly a decade late at double the cost—while dissent like Brad Cabana’s was sidelined. The new Churchill Falls MOU repeats the trap: external leverage, political optics, and deferred accountability, unless governance reforms and hard budget rules break the cycle. Read More...